MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-24T00:14:46
The high energy electron flux as observed by GOES16 is currently at Normal Background and is expected to persist at this level initially. Persistence methods and MOSWOC REFM are not expected to offer a useful steer to eventual fluence levels in the period, owing to the dominance of CMEs in the forecast. On balance, confidence decreases sharply through the period, with a possible rising Slight Chance of Active later in the period once geomagnetic activity wanes.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-07-24T00:14:46 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 15% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |