MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-17T00:11:49
The high energy electron flux is expected to remain at background levels. This may change should the onset of any fast wind occur around day 2 or 3 (18-19 July). Any uptick in fluence may be experienced from day 3 or 4 (19-20 Jul) onward, though the expectation is to remain below the Active threshold.
MOSWOC REFM runs are considered to be offering reasonable guidance in their continuing flat forecast trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-07-17T00:11:49 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |