MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-16T00:33:27
High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is currently at background. The Strong and Severe geomagnetic storming on 12 Aug likely increased the electron flux at lower orbital shells, and there is still a potential for a response at GEO as this flux moves outward. Any increase is likely to be rather subdued, however, likely peaking at Moderate at diurnal maximum, and may not be observable much above background.
The associated 24hr electron fluence is therefore currently expected to remain below Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels throughout, with MOSWOC REFM providing reasonable guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-08-16T00:33:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |