Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-15T00:11:50

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is currently at background. The recent Strong and Severe geomagnetic storming on 12 Aug may see electron flux at GEO increase in time to moderate or even high levels given the potential for electron transfer from currently more highly charged regions below GEO, though this remains a low probability with little appreciable increase in electron counts having recently been observed. Should any enhancement in flux levels occur in the next few days, CME influence from Day 3 (17 Aug) will likely return electron flux to background. 

The associated 24hr electron fluence is therefore currently expected to remain below Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels throughout but with reduced confidence.