MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-16T00:25:44
There are no immediate sources of fast wind enhancements, the High energy electron flux is expected to remain at low / background levels. This may change should the onset of the fast wind originating from CH54/- occur, however this is due on or around day 3 (18 July) and therefore any uptick in fluence may be experienced from day 4 (19 Jul) onward, though the expectation is to remain below the Active threshold.
MOSWOC REFM runs are considered to be offering reasonable guidance in their continuing flat forecast trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-07-16T00:25:44 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |