Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-06-16T00:39:14

The high energy electron flux is expected to persist at mainly Normal Background levels for much of this period, with the recent CME arrival likely only providing limited enhancement, although some diurnal Moderate flux values are likely. No other significant sources of enhancement are expected.

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). The recent CME arrival should lessen the utility of MOSWOC REFM, however its current trend is considered to provide reasonably good guidance in the interim. The only other potential driver of increased counts at GEO is perhaps CH45/+, however any eventual fluence increase will come late in this forecast period - if at all.