Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-05-16T12:14:25

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 has been at mainly Moderate to High levels, but has fell to background levels following the recent CME arrival. This trend is most likely to persist in the short term, however the potential for electron flux to continue to rise and potentially reach persistently High levels remains, with lower orbits having been highly charged by the CME arrivals over previous days. A continued rise in flux levels from day 2 (17 May) onwards is expected although confidence is further reduced due to another potential glancing CME later on day 2 or day 3 (17-18 May), with may again reduce the observed flux. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to see a general falling trend near term, before likely retuning to a rising trend later day 2 (17 May) onwards, perhaps approaching the Active threshold by days 3 and 4 (18-19 May). MOSWOC REFM providing reasonable guidance in the near term although perhaps under representing the risk of reaching the Active threshold later in the period.