MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-05-10T00:28:16
High energy electron flux is at normal background levels. Forecast CME and coronal hole influence through the period is expected to limit electron flux to background to moderate levels on all days.
Overall, the 24 hour integrated electron fluence is forecast to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. The Met Office REFM model is considered to be giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-05-10T00:28:16 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |