Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-05-24T00:42:09

Currently no Earth-bound CMEs are expected to arrive, and therefore influence the electron forecast at GEO. Influence over high energy electrons levels will be solely due to coronal hole high speed stream influence. The main driver of geomagnetic activity and arising electron response is the non-persistent CH39/-. Being a new feature, confidence in the ensuing fluence is lower than is typical, but it does benefit from a relatively unimpeded CME outlook.

Overall there is a Slight Chance of eventual Active 24-hour integrated fluence resulting from the fast wind, although the portion of CH39/- near the solar equator appears weak and we are nearing the less potent part of the semi-annual cycle (i.e. we are relatively nearer the muted solstice rather than the equinoxes).

Despite the lack of persistence to aid MOSWOC REFM the model is felt to be offering reasonable guide, keeping the fluence well below the Active threshold with a rising trend through today and again, at lower levels, later in the period.