Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-05-16T00:26:35

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 has been at mainly Moderate to High levels, but briefly dropped out from a weak CME glance late on 15 May, before rising again. An increasing trend is most likely to resume, however the potential for this to reach persistently High flux is now slightly reduced in confidence, despite lower orbits having been charged by the CME arrivals over the previous days. This is further reduced in confidence due to another potential weak glancing CME later on day 2 or day 3 (17-18 May), with may again reduce the observed flux. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to see a general rising trend, perhaps approaching the Active threshold, with a chance of exceeding this by day 2 (17 May). However, MOSWOC REFM now suggests peak fluence is likely to remain below this level, adding to the uncertainty of reaching Active.