Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-05-15T00:31:20

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 is currently at Moderate levels, but is likely to see an increasing trend during the period as solar winds ease. The CME arrivals over the previous days have likely resulted in a charging at lower orbits, and as the Van Allen belts ease back towards GEO through days 1-2 (15-16 May), this charging has the potential to bring periods of High electron perhaps becoming persistently High. Confidence is Low however. 

The associated 24 fluence will subsequently respond with a gradual rising trend, with a likelihood of reaching Active day 2 (16 May). MOSWOC REFM is perhaps underdoing the initial gradual rise, but does show Active fluence by day 2, which agrees with current expectations.