Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-15T00:29:59

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is forecast to decline to mainly background as solar wind pressure increases due to the onset of the combined fast wind of CH24/- and potential CME arrivals, compressing the belts inward. Confidence is then low with how much charging the Van Allen belts will receive from these arrivals, but as pressure eases later in the period Moderate, perhaps peaking High flux is possible day 3-4 (17-18 Apr). Although confidence is further reduced by the further potential CME arrival on day 3 (17 Apr).  

The associated 24 hr electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, as supported by REFM, but with an increasing trend most likely by the end of the period. Any CME arrivals will not be captured by current REFM expectations.