MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-14T00:29:33
High energy electron flux at GOES16 is expected to temporarily decrease from the current Background to Moderate levels to more persistent Background due to the onset of any fast wind and the potential two CME arrivals. As solar wind pressure eases, flux will likely recover to, perhaps rising to be Moderate to High.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to rise in response to any recovery day 3 and day 4 (16-17 Apr), bringing a slight chance of reaching the Active level by day 4 (17 Apr). REFM is giving good guidance to initial conditions, however this will not be taking account of the impact of any CME or fast wind onset later in the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-04-14T00:29:33 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |