MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-05-14T00:34:23
High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 is currently Background to briefly Moderate, but is likely to see a significant increase during the period, as solar winds ease. The CME arrivals have likely resulted in a charging at lower orbits, and as the Van Allen belts ease back towards GEO, this charging is expected to bring initially more persistent Moderate flux, but likely persistently High electron flux by day 2 (15 May).
The associated 24 fluence will subsequently respond with a gradual rising trend, with a likelihood of reaching Active by the end of day 2 (15 May). This rising trend is supported by MOSWOC REFM, although the model is currently overestimating forecast values.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-05-14T00:34:23 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 60% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 5% |