Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-05-13T00:14:14

High energy electron flux is forecast to be at normal background levels to start but are predicted to rise markedly in coming days depending on the degree of geomagnetic and CME activity, with moderate to high levels likely to be attained by Day 3 (15 May) as significant charging of the Van-Allen belts continues apace.

The associated fluence will probably exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by the same time. The Met Office REFM output is considered to offer useful guidance in the coming days with a sharp uptick indicated through the guidance period but the very high levels offered in current guidance are not likely to be attained.