Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-05-12T00:03:12

High energy electron flux at GOES16 is at normal Background levels, and is expected to remain at or near this level given the number of inbound CMEs and the likely sustained pressure on the Van Allen belts sweeping them inside GEO for some time. However there is a slight chance that electrons could become enhanced towards the end of the period, in absence of further CME enhancements. 

Overall, the 24-hour integrated electron fluence is forecast to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. The Met Office REFM is not considered to offer useful guidance in the coming days by anything other than chance given the CME-dominated forecast.