Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-12T00:43:42

High energy electron flux is currently oscillating between background and moderate on diurnal variations. This pattern is expected to continue through today under the influence of a weakening high speed stream. The next forecast high speed stream is expected to arrive tomorrow (13th Apr) which may lead to a slight decrease followed by increased diurnal peaks. There is a slight chance of the High (1e3pfu) threshold being reached towards the end of the period.

Electron fluence values are at background levels. Despite a likely rising trend, following the onset of the next high speed stream, the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold is not expected to be reached. Therefore the Met Office REFM model is considered to be giving overall good guidance.