MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-05T00:14:24
High energy electron flux is expected to increase from mainly background levels in the coming days following the easing of the high-speed streams from coronal holes 16 and 17. Diurnal peaks of Moderate to High flux are likely, especially on days 3 and 4 (07 and 08 Apr).
24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on days 1 and 2 (05 and 06 Apr). A rising trend is likely to be observed, particularly into days 3 and 4 (07 and 08 Apr) but not expected to exceed the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-04-05T00:14:24 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |