Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-04T00:13:31

GOES-16 high energy electron flux at GEO has persisted at background levels, with no significant enhancements expected until after the onset of any HSS from CH16/17. Electron flux may climb as a response to the faster wind speeds into Days 3 and 4 (06-07 Apr), potentially reaching High levels by the end of the period as coronal hole influence fades. As this HSS is now a little later than expected, any increase in electron flux is also expected to be slightly later than originally suggested. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain steady well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level on Days 1-2 (04-05 Apr), before potentially rising through Days 3-4. This will bring a chance of reaching the Active threshold by the end of the period, although confidence is only moderate in any rise occurring. REFM is providing a good guide to current conditions, however the forecast later in the period remains unreliable until after any fast wind arrives at Earth and can be assimilated into the model.