Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-03T00:08:16

GOES-16 high energy electron flux at GEO has persisted at background levels, with no significant enhancements expected until after the onset of any fast wind from CH16/17. Electron count rates perhaps climbing as a response into Day 3 or more likely Day 4 (05-06 Apr), potentially reaching Moderate to High levels by the end of the period as coronal hole influence likely fades.   

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain steady, well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, on Days 1-2, before rising gradually through Days 3-4. This will bring a chance of reaching the Active threshold by the end of the period. REFM is providing a good guide to current conditions, however detail later into the period remains unreliable until after any fast wind arrives at Earth and the impact can be assessed.