Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-02T00:08:26

GOES-16 high energy electron flux at GEO has persisted at background levels, with no significant enhancements expected until the onset of any fast wind from CH16/17. Electron count rates perhaps climbing as a response into day 3 or more likely Day 4 (04-05 Apr), potentially reaching Moderate to High levels by the end of the period as coronal hole influence likely fades.   

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain steady, well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, on Days 1-3, before rising gradually through Day 4. This will bring a slight chance of reaching the Active threshold by the end of the period, but most likely to occur beyond this period. REFM is providing a good guide to current conditions, however it is unlikely to forecast any increase in fluence until after the fast wind arrives at Earth.