Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-01T00:12:04

GOES-16 High energy electron flux at GEO has persisted at background, with no significant enhancements expected until the onset of any fast wind from CH18/19. This is currently forecast to occur on day 3 (03 Apr), with electron count rates likely climbing as a response on day 4 (04 Apr), potentially reaching High by the end of the day.   

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected remain steady, well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, days 1-3 (01-03 Apr), before rising gradually through day 4 (04 Apr). This will bring a slight chance of reaching the Active threshold by the end of the period, but most likely to occur beyond this period. REFM is currently providing a good guide to current conditions until this fast wind onset.