Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-05-01T00:24:20

High energy electron flux has been mostly at background levels, just touching moderate at the diurnal peak. The recent HSS influence was weak enough that no significant increase in electron flux is expected from this. During Day 1 (01 May) some portion of the newly renamed CH34/- may become geoeffective, perhaps bringing elevated wind speeds, although this will most probably only be for a brief period. As such, no significant increase in electron flux is expected from this feature, although counts may reach moderate levels at the diurnal maxima. A further HSS from CH32/+ is possible near the end of this period, which could reduce any flux increase once again. 

Overall, the 24 hour integrated electron fluence is most likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, perhaps with a very slight rising trend in the latter half of the period. MOSWOC REFM is currently forecasting fluence to remain well below the Active level, and appears good guidance at present.