Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-30T00:10:05

High energy electron flux has been at background to moderate levels. There may be a slight rising trend in flux levels in the next couple of days, with any potential coronal hole influences expected to be weak. Later on day 2 (1 May) CH31/- may become geoeffective, and there is also a low chance of a peripheral CME glance on day 2 (30 Apr). Either of these features may tend to reduce electron counts if we see any more significant geomagnetic enhancement.

The 24 hour integrated electron fluence is most likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but likely with a slight rising trend initially, and perhaps later on day 4 (May 3). MOSWOC REFM is currently forecasting fluence to remain well below the Active level, and appears good guidance at present.