Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-03-31T00:34:56

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO, has remained at background levels, with a diurnal peak at Moderate. Any fast wind connection to coronal holes CH15/+ and CH13/+ is expected to be minimal, and is not expected to increase the risk of prolonged High flux levels. Later in the period, the connection to coronal holes CH16/- and CH17/- may produce a greater effect on flux levels, however any increase to High is not expected during the forecast period.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active level, although a slight rising trend is possible and signalled by REFM. Suppression of fluence levels is possible from later Day 3 or Day 4 (02-03 Apr) due to the expected arrival of, and connection to, fast winds from coronal holes CH16/- and CH17/-. Although fluence levels are currently above REFM forecast levels, REFM is still considered to be giving good guidance for the overall trend.