MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-07T00:18:01
High energy electron flux observed by GOES-16 is likely to vary between Background and Moderate days 1-2 (07-08 Apr), before perhaps dropping to be more persistently Background day 3 (09 Apr) onward. This would be in response to the fast wind arrival from CH20. Only a minimal connection to this feature is expected however, with flux likely persisting at or near background thereafter.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, with REFM currently giving good guidance for expected conditions.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-04-07T00:18:01 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |