MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-03-07T00:38:51
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) remains at background levels despite CME influence in recent days and it expected to generally remain so through much of the forecast period. Any enhancement as a result of CME or coronal hole high speed stream influence are likely to be towards the end of this four-day guidance period.
Consequently, the electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold with MOSWOC REFM model output viewed as providing reasonable guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-03-07T00:38:51 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |