Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-29T00:11:22

High energy electron flux has been at background to moderate levels. There may be a slight rising trend in flux levels in the next couple of days, with any potential small coronal hole influences expected to be weak. However, later on day 3 (1 May) CH31/- is likely to become geoeffective, and there is also a low chance of a peripheral CME glance on day 2 (30 Apr). Either of these features would tend to reduce electron counts if we saw any significant geomagnetic enhancement.

The 24 hour integrated electron fluence is most likely to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but perhaps with a slight rising trend at the end of the period, if the anticipated HSS from CH31/- begins to wane by this time. MOSWOC REFM is currently forecasting fluence to remain well below the Active level, and appears good guidance at present.