Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-28T00:14:50

High energy electron flux has been at background to moderate levels. There may be a slight rising trend in flux levels in the next couple of days, as recent and any lingering coronal hole HSS influences are expected to either remain weak or slowly wane. However, later on day 4 (1 May) CH31/- may become geoeffective, and there is also a low chance of peripheral CME glances early on day 1 (28 Apr) and perhaps on day 3 (30 Apr). Either of these features would tend to reduce electron counts if giving geomagnetic enhancement.

The 24 hour integrated electron fluence is most likely to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but perhaps with a slight rising trend as mentioned above. MOSWOC REFM is currently forecasting fluence to remain well below the Active level, and appears good guidance at present.