MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-05-28T00:16:26
GOES-16 electron flux is currently mainly background with only brief diurnal increases to Moderate possible. There is a slight chance of a weak connection to CH40/+ day 1-2 (27-28 May), perhaps further suppressing the electron population at GEO on onset, with little enhancement forecast to follow.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active level, as supported by MOSWOC REFM, which is currently providing good guidance for the expected trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-05-28T00:16:26 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |