Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-05-21T00:13:07

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 is at background to moderate levels. There is the potential for the electron flux to rise and potentially reach high levels at the end of the period but the chance is considered low since any enhancement is likely to be curtailed by potential glancing CME influence over the coming day.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold, even if it is likely to rise at the end of the period. The risk of exceeding the Active threshold is low but considered possible on Day 4 (23rd) though dependent on the extent of any CME enhancement. In the absence of CME enhancements MOSWOC REFM looks to be providing reasonable guidance, although perhaps slightly over representing the risk of reaching the Active threshold later in the period.