Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-06-20T00:12:12

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, reached moderate levels at the diurnal maximum on 19 June as a consequence of the current fast wind enhancement from CH45/+. Electron flux is likely to continue peaking at moderate levels over the next couple of days, before the potential onset of the HSS from CH46/-, which could suppress electron flux once again. The British Antarctic Survey radiation belt model suggests that any flux increase due to CH45 has been minor, which seems reasonable given the lack of geomagnetic response to CH45, with flux levels likely to remain at background to moderate levels.

The associated electron fluence is expected to persist below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), perhaps rising a little in response to the recent enhancement. MOSWOC REFM is suggesting a rise below the Active level, which is currently considered to be good guidance.