MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-06-19T00:13:39
High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to persist at mainly background levels, perhaps rising a little to Moderate values at diurnal peaks as a consequence of the recent fast wind onset from CH45/+.
The associated electron fluence is expected to persist below the Active threshold, perhaps rising a little in response to the recent enhancement. This is supported by MOSWOC REFM which is currently considered to be providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-06-19T00:13:39 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |