MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-06-18T00:09:43
The high energy electron flux is expected to persist at mainly Background levels, although some diurnal Moderate flux values are likely in the wake of the current fast wind.
No feature in the last rotation has proven capable of generating Active electron fluence, and despite not being a persistent feature, the limited strength of CH45/+ is unlikely to buck this trend. The associated 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout (1e8 integrated pfu). MOSWOC REFM is considered to provide reasonably good guidance in the near term.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-06-18T00:09:43 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |