Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-05-19T00:09:35

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 is at background to moderate levels, however there is the potential for electron flux to rise and potentially reach persistently high levels into the period, with lower orbits having been highly charged by numerous strong CME arrivals in the past week or so. Any rise in electron flux may be curtailed by further CME influence however, this most most likely late day 2 (20 May) or early day 3 (21 May). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to continue a generally rising trend between days 1 and 2 (19 and 20 May) with an increasing chance to reach the Active threshold by days 3 and 4 (21-22 May), though dependent on the extent of any CME enhancement. In the absence of CME enhancement MOSWOC REFM looks to be providing reasonable guidance although perhaps slightly under representing the risk of reaching the Active threshold later in the period.