MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-05-26T00:13:04
GOES-16 electron flux continues to vary diurnally from Background to Moderate. The enhancement from CH39 appears to have been minimal, with little connection to Earth, and there is only a slight chance of a weak connection to CH40/+ by day 2 (27 May).
Furthermore, there is the potential for a weak CME glance, which may aid to further suppress the electron population at GEO. This is most likely to result in flux declining to persistent background levels.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active level, as supported by MOSWOC REFM, which is currently providing good guidance for the expected trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-05-26T00:13:04 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |