MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-06-17T00:08:51
The high energy electron flux is expected to persist at mainly Background levels for much of this period, although some diurnal Moderate flux values are likely. This particularly later in the period following enhancement provided by positive coronal hole influence into the period.
The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) but with a rising trend possible later in the period. MOSWOC REFM considered to provide reasonably good guidance in the near term.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-06-17T00:08:51 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |