MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-06-10T00:16:20
The high energy electron flux is likely to persist at Normal Background levels for much of this period - now rendered more likely by the anticipated inbound 08 June CME.
MOSWOC REFM output is viewed as limited for good guidance, although it maintains fluence below the Active level. However, it cannot account for the incoming CME and its range is not sufficient to hint at any potential rise in the T+72-96 hour period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-06-10T00:16:20 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |