MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-18T00:11:56
The high energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is expected to remain at background. Any subsequent fast wind connection may lead to flux rising to give spells of Moderate day 2 (19 Jul), however any increase is likely to quickly be suppressed by the onset of any CME arrival.
The associated electron fluence is expected to persist below the Active level with MOSWOC REFM currently providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-07-18T00:11:56 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |