MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-17T00:09:07
High energy electron flux is expected to continue its current muted diurnal trend in the near-term, in the absence of any significant mechanisms to alter this state of affairs and with no coronal hole fast winds due in the four days. Confidence in the continuation of this behaviour in the wake of the X1.1 CME on Saturday 17 August should fall, perhaps giving an eventual Slight Chance of Active 24-hour fluence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-08-17T00:09:07 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |