MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-24T00:26:17
High energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background and forecast to remain at this level. Any coronal hole soured solar wind enhancement on day one (24 Aug) is now forecast to be rather subdued, limiting the potential for any increases in the electron count at GEO.
Fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the period. MOSWOC REFM is currently providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-08-24T00:26:17 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |