Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-31T00:22:13

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background. Recent enhancements, including the CME arrival on 27 Aug and the fast wind arrival on 30 Aug have potentially increased electron counts at lower orbits. It is uncertain how much these will expand outwards to be observed at GEO, however periods of Moderate flux remain possible during diurnal maximum.  

Despite the potential for any increased flux, the associated 24 hour Fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout, although a slight rising trend is likely. MOSWOC REFM is providing good guidance for staying below this level, but likely underestimating any potential rising trend.