MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-07T00:17:46
High energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 has been at background to moderate levels. Any weak HSS from CH65/+ may result in a slight increase in the electron flux, with levels becoming mainly moderate, with a slight chance of reaching High levels during a diurnal peak.
Overall, the 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, although with perhaps with a rising trend late in the period after any HSS from CH65 starts to ease. Therefore, there is a slight chance of exceeding the Active threshold by Day 4 (10 Sep). MOSWOC REFM will not be taking into account the upcoming potential HSS, but the overall trend of the fluence remaining below Active is accepted.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-09-07T00:17:46 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |