Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-07T12:24:18

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 has been at mainly background levels. Any weak HSS from CH65/+ may result in a slight increase in the electron flux later in the period, with levels becoming mainly moderate, and a chance of reaching High levels during diurnal peak.

Overall, the 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, although with perhaps a rising trend late in the period after any HSS from CH65/+ starts to ease. Therefore, there is a very slight chance of exceeding the Active threshold on Day 4 (10 Sep). MOSWOC REFM will not be taking into account the upcoming potential HSS, but the overall trend of the fluence remaining below Active is accepted.