MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-09T00:16:10
High energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 has been Background to Moderate. Onset of any fast wind may initially lead to flux levels becoming more persistently background for a time, with a recovering then likely later Day 2. Given the expected arrival of a glancing CME later Day 2 or early Day 3 however, electrons should become suppressed once again, likely staying that way for the remainder of the period.
Overall, the 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8
integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-09-09T00:16:10 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |