Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-02T00:17:39

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is mostly at background levels, with moderate diurnal rises. Recent enhancements have given some geomagnetic activity but little in the way of wind speed increases. Whilst there is the potential for increased electron counts at lower orbits, this is considered unlikely to be significant. Periods of moderate flux should continue during diurnal maxima over the coming days.  

Despite the potential for any increased flux, the associated 24 hour Fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout, although a slight rising trend is likely. MOSWOC REFM is providing good guidance for staying below this level, but likely underestimating its rising trend over the coming days.