Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-03T00:14:01

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is at background to moderate levels, with recent CME effects driving a very minor increase in flux at the diurnal maxima. This is likely to gradually tail off over the next few days in the absence of CME influence. However, there is the potential for some CME shock at Earth on Days 1 to 2 (03-04 Sep), which may cause a sharp drop in electron flux to background levels in the short term. Depending on the level of geomagnetic response to this feature, it may then drive an increase in electron flux later in the period. Confidence is low, however, on whether this CME arrives at Earth or not. 

Overall, the 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for much of this period, perhaps with a rising trend later if we do see CME influence with a geomagnetic response. Therefore there is a slight chance of exceeding the Active threshold by the end of the period. MOSWOC REFM is showing the most likely forecast, below Active, but will not be taking into account any CME arrival.