MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-10T00:09:31
The diurnal oscillation of high energy electron flux has been within the confines of Normal Background levels in the past 24 hours. While Earth may now have connected with a minor fast wind, the fact that this appears to have now peaked should mean there is little likelihood of Active 24-hour fluence resulting, especially since the 08 September CME is perhaps due at a time when any recovery of the Van Allen belts to encompass GEO might be expected.
All considered, the chances of Active 24-hour fluence are very low throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-09-10T00:09:31 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |