Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-17T00:26:15

High energy electron flux is currently showing a relatively flat diurnal oscillation peaking at High. The CME(s) expected have now arrived, and as such flux levels at GEO should show a period of apparent suppression before a possible rebound later in the coming UTC working week. The fast wind from CH70/+ is not felt likely to offer a significant driver to counts.

The forecast is therefore uncertain but should now show a suppression and then rise to a stable elevated level. This is represented by variations on a Slight Chance throughout. MOSWOC REFM is not considered to be useful in this instance given the dominance of a CME in the forecast outcome.