Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-18T00:14:21

High energy electron flux is currently at background following the arrival of the CME arrival late on 16 Sep. Flux levels at GEO are displaying apparent suppression, although a rebound is anticipated later in the coming UTC week. The recovery in flux levels and charging associated with the CME arrival may see the return to a diurnal variation of background to moderate, perhaps peaking at high during diurnal maximum.

The anticipated onset of a fast wind from CH70/+ during Days 1 or 2 (18-19 Sep) is not expected to influence the forecast greatly, but there is a slight chance that it may act to further suppress and delay the electron flux recovery.

The forecast is therefore uncertain, but should continue to exhibit a suppression and then rise to a stable elevated level. This is represented by variations on a Slight Chance throughout. MOSWOC REFM is not considered to be useful in this instance given the dominance of recent CME influences.